Arkle Trophy trends 2007

The Arkle trophy has involved horses of the calibre of War of Attrition, Kicking King, Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop, Well Chief & Voy Por Ustedes.

Flagship umberalles, Moscow Flyer and Azertioup all won The Arkle Trophy before going on to win the Champion chase.

Well chief (2004) & Voy Por Ustedes (2006) have both won this race and head the betting for this years champion chase.

The Arkle is a key pointer when looking for future winners of the Champion Chase.

Here are the Arkle horse racing Trends.

Form

As with the Supreme novices hurdle, previous winning form seems to be key.

6 of the last 10 winners won their last race (2 came 2nd 1 came 3rd & 1 fell).

5 of the last 10 winners won their last two races.

8 of the last 10 winners won their penultimate start.

If a horse cannot win an ordinary race then it faces an uphill task when upped to the championship class of the festival.

Age

The younger horses dominate the Arkle Trophy.

5yo's made up 16% of the runners but accounted for 40% of the winners (s/r 18%, profit £16).

6yo's made up 12% of the runners & won 20% of the races (s/r 12% Loss £8.25).

7yo's made up 39% of the runners & won 30% of the races(s/r 6% loss £28).

8yo's and upwards had one winner from 45 runners for a loss of £38.5.

It should pay to stick with the 5 & 6 year olds because they have far superior strike rates than the other age groups.

Weight

At first glance, this does not seem important because the vast majority of the runners will be carrying the same weight.

However, 5yo's receive a weight allowance & you can see from the age stats above that they use this allowance to good advantage.

Starting Price

Favourites have fared poorly in the last 10 years with only one obliging.

There have been 14 horses with an Sp of less than 5-1 and only 1 won (loss of £11.75).

The most profitable price range (by far) is between 5-1 & 9-1.

There have been 39 (28% of all runners) runners in this price range & 8 winners (showing a profit of £25).

Previous experience

9 of the 10 winners had ran over fences between 2 & 5 times & won at least 50% of their chase starts.

5 of the winners had won all of their previous chase starts.

Distance of previous race

8 of the winners had ran over 2m or 2m1f on their previous run.

Summary

The Arkle Trophy is a race with plenty of potential for those who like to take on the shorter priced horses.

Ideally, our horse should have won its previous 2 races, ran over 16 or 17f on its previous run be between 5 & 6 years old & be between 5 & 9-1 in price.