Cheltenham Day one

Before I start with the trends, I would like to say GOOD LUCK & I hope you have a profitable Cheltenham whatever you back.

The racing post website carries a good list of the horses that have won the last ten renewals of each race so I won't repeat them below. I will highlight the most significant trends in each race.

If you want to know how to see the racing posts ten year trends but are not sure what to do, here's how:

Go to the racingpost website, sign in & click on Racing > Cards >Date (choose whichever day you are interested in).

Then pick the card & the race you are interested in.

Once you have the list of runners on your screen, scroll to the part beneath the betting forecast & the spotlight verdict & you will see tabs such as Show notes, Form, Rpr, Topspeed etc..... The fifth tab along will show you the trends.

Ok, onto the analysis..............

Cheltenham Festival trends 2008 - Day 1


2.00 - ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

The Stats

• 9/10 Won their previous race.

• Favourites have won 3 of the last 6 renewals.

• Irish trained horses are responsible for 5 of the last 7 winners.

• 8/10 winners were aged between 5 & 6.

The above 4 stats are very powerful.

The WLTO stat leaves us with 14 of the 42 entries to concentrate on (don't ignore this stat, 30 of the last 35 winners won their previous race).

Of these 14, 3 do not fit the age trends.

We also want to be betting a horse trained in ireland.

This leaves us with:

Fiveforthree (W P Mullins)
Forpadydeplasterer (Thomas Cooper) (likely non runner)
Jered (Noel Meade)
Muirhead (Noel Meade)

I would not put you off betting any of these 4 if they all line up.
Mullins won this last year, Meade in 2000, Cooper has not won this but the ratings I subscribe to put his horse top.

Based on previous form, I would have to go with either Muirhead or Forpadydeplasterer.

Both have beat Fiveforthree's stablemate cork all star. (Cork all star also runs in this race and looks to be Mullins more fancied horse - based on the current betting odds) .

Muirhead gave stablemate Jered a 19 length beating last time they met.

Seletcions:

Muirhead
Forpadydeplasterer (now a likely non runner)



2.35 - IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE

• Only 1 favourite has won in the last 10 runnings

• 9/10 started at under 10/1 SP.

• 5/10 Were french bred (despite only making up around 21% of the runners).

• 9/10 finished 1st or 2nd LTO

• Irish based trainers 1/10

• Pipe (4), Nicholls (2) & A King (2) have won 8 of the last 10 renewals between them.

• 5 - 7 yr olds won 9/10

• 9 of the 10 winners had ran over fences between 2 & 5 times & won at least 50% of their chase starts

The form requirment gets rid of 8 of the 17 declarations & the Age trends remove a further 2.

This leaves us with:

Leslingtaylor (J J Quinn) 133
Noland (P F Nicholls) 138
Orpen Wide (M C Chapman) 128 - never won in 5 starts
Ring The Boss (P J Hobbs) 125 - 1 chase start (2nd to kruguyrova)
Thyne Again (W J Burke) 103
Tidal Bay (J Howard Johnson) 149
Kruguyrova (C R Egerton) 146

Of these, Ring the boss has only had one chase start (though it was a close second to Kruguyrova), Orpen wide is 0-5 from its chase starts. Thyne again has not won 50% of its chase starts.

Leslingtaylor (J J Quinn) 133
Noland (P F Nicholls) 138
Tidal Bay (J Howard Johnson) 149
Kruguyrova (C R Egerton) 146

Of these 4, I could not have Tidal bay because its jumping may not be upto scratch. In its last three races, the comments in running have included "blundered badly 6 out", "hit 1st", "blundered badly last" & "hit 8th". If Tidal bay gets round cleanly, It will surely be in the top two but I want to be betting a sound jumper in a top class, fast paced race.

The positive with Kruguyrova is that it is a french bred but it is also a front runner. Only the classy Azertioup has managed to "make all" in the last 10 years. I don't think Kruguyrova is in Azertioup's class, especially when her trainer said "I don't think she is good enough for Cheltenham - her limitations were exposed at Wetherby last time" (after her wetherby win in Jan 08).

Leslingtaylor beat Tidal bay lto (albeit by 1/2 a length because tidal bay blundered at the last). Tidal bay would surely reverse the form given a clean round. This coupled with the fact that Leslingtaylor fell at Cheltenham on its penultimate start means that is also has to be passed over.

This leaves us with Noland. Noland is going to be the favourite for this race and although they have a poor record, you cannot knock what Noland has done on its 2 chase starts. Comments in running such as "Jumped well" and "Jumped Proficiently" should stand Noland in good stead for the cheltenham fences. noland is trained by Paul nicholls & Nicholls is no stranger to saddling the winner of this race.

Selection:

Noland



3.15 - SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

• 9/10 Won last time out.

• 10/10 aged 6-9 (7 of last 8 were aged 7 or 8).

• 5yo's are 0-73 since 1985.

• 13 of the last 16 winners - 1st or 2nd in a previous cheltenham festival.

• Irish based trainers dominate - winning 7 of the last 9 renewals.

No horse perfectly fits the trends in this race.

Only 6 horses won last time out & of these, 3 are Irish trained- the favourite Sizing Europe, Harchibald & Catch me.

Of the 6 lto winners, Katchit won at last years festival but as a 5yo,has the age barrier to overcome. Harchibald has a second place in the 2005 champion hurdle (but is 9 years old).

The other 4 lto winners have not won or come second in a previous years festival but Afsoun was 3rd in this race last year (as a 5yo). Catch me also came 3rd at last years festival. Osana has a course win & has already beat Afsoun & sublimity this season although it has been beaten by Sizing Europe.

Selection:

A tough race to be confident in picking a winner (though Afsoun looks great each way value at 28/1 if running anywhere near as good as last year).

I would not put anyone off betting Sizing europe.

It has been impressive and looks a worthy favourite but I will be betting Harchibald, its sure to get the strong pace it needs.


4.00 - WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE

• 9/10 Carried 11-2 or less (last 8 carried less than 11 stone).

• 8/10 won a handicap race in one of its last three races

• 10/10 won over 3m+

• Favourite 0/10

Of the entrants under 11 stone, only 8 have won a handicap chase in one of their last three races. Of these, only 5 have won over 3 miles or further.

These are:

Mattock Ranger (N Meade)
An Accordian (D Pipe)
King Harald (M Bradstock)
Abragante (D Pipe)
Newbay Prop (A J Martin)

In this race, horses that are held up until very late have a definite advantage. King Harold is a front runner so can be dismissed.

Mattock ranger has a prominent racing style & can also be dismissed.
Of the final three, Abragante Pulled up last time out but if back to its best this time, will run a good race off a low weight. An Accordian is quite rightly the favourite. However, with its prominent racing style & the poor record of favourites, it might be worth taking on with Newbay Prop.

Newbay Prop won a 29 runner, 3 mile handicap 3 runs ago by coming from "well of the pace". AJ Martin won this race in 2006 with Dunn Doire & clearly wants to win this race again (currently has 4 entrants).

Selection:

Newbay Prop

4.40 - BGC HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY CHASE)

This was one of the new races added in 2005 & there are not many trends to take from the 3 runnings.

E Bolger is the king in these races, winning 2 of the 3 renewals. He saddles:

Heads On the Ground (won this last year)
Garde Champetre
Freneys Well

The main prep race for this is the Sporting Index P P Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase held at Punchestown. In the last three years, two won the punchetown race before winning at cheltenham.

This years winner was Garde Champetre with Heads On the Ground second.

Heads on the Ground has been fairly beaten by Garde Champetre& Wonderkid in recent races. Wonderkid won by 8 lengths over course & distance.

Another horse worth noting is Casadei who came within 1 length of winning on its cross country debut over course & distance.

The final point to note, all three winners were irish trained.

Selections:

I am no expert in crosss counrty races but I will be betting one from Wonderkid, Garde Champetre and Casadei (each way).




5.20 - FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE

This is another of the races added in 2005 so there are only 3 years of thats to rely on. This, limited form and the 69 pre race entries makes it extermely difficult to make a selection.

If you have to bet, stick to those that won last time out & horses that have had 3 - 5 hurdle runs (ie unexposed to the handicapper).

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