6 horses didn't finish in the top 4 last time & another 2 are aged 6. 3 Have never won over hurdles which leaves us with 9 (including a Jonjo O'Neill horse Pass it on - 40/1).

We need to narrow the feild down further so we will only consider horses that finished 1st or 2nd lto.

This leaves us with:

In Accord (H D Daly)
Menchikov (N J Henderson)
Back On Line (Miss Venetia Williams)
Old Benny (A King)

All 4 of these have form over 3m+ and I am not aware of any stats that would further narrow the field.

Based on form, I will be betting Menchikov & Back on line.

Selections:

Menchikov & Back on line.

13.05 - ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE

The form, age & experience trends remove 18 of the runers. This leaves us with:

Albertas Run (Jonjo OŽNeill)
Finger Onthe Pulse (T J Taaffe)
Gold Medallist (P J Hobbs)
Silverburn (P F Nicholls)
Tidal Bay (J Howard Johnson)
Verasi (G L Moore)

A stat on the attheraces website points out that horses 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the betting have won 9 of the last 14 renewals.

Albertas Run is currently second in the betting & Silverburn is 4th.

A case can be made for both of these horses - Silverburn is trained by Paul Nicholls.Nicholls has trained the last two winners of this race.

Despite this, I prefer Albertas Run. It has won over course and distance & It also beat the current favourite for this race last time out.

Selection:

Albertas Run

13.40 - JEWSON NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE

- There has only been 3 runnings of this race so there is not enough data for trends purposes.

14.20 - SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

Only 6 horses pass the form trend and of these, only Twist magic and Voy Por Ustedes have won or placed at the festival in previous years.

Both Ran in the tingle creek - Twist magic won with Voy por ustedes second.

Twist magic would be the trends pick but...

Voy Por Ustedes has won this race twice before.

Given the strong pace it needs, I am expecting Voy Por Ustedes to reverse the form & claim his 3rd Champion chase

Selection:

Voy Por Ustedes

14.55 - RYANAIR CHASE

- There has only been 3 runnings of this race so there is not enough data for trends purposes. (I will be backing L antartique)

15.30 - LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE

The age & form stats remove 9 of the horses including the favourite Inglis Drever (9yo).

Removing the two remaining irish trained horses takes our shortlist down to 6:

Blazing Bailey (A King)
Kasbah Bliss (F Doumen)
Lough Derg (D E Pipe)
My Way De Solzen (A King)
The Market Man (N J Henderson)
Wichita Lineman (Jonjo OŽNeill)

The Market man & Lough Derg are both too big a price (22/1 each).In each of the last 4 years, the first 4 in the betting have filled all the win & place positions.

Of the final 4, Wichita Lineman looks to be well held based on its last 3 runs (4th to Kasbah Bliss beaten 10.5 lengths, 2nd to Blazing Bailey beaten 8 lengths & 4th to Hardy Eustace - beaten 13 lengths).

This leaves us with:

Blazing Bailey (A King) - 3rd in this race last year
Kasbah Bliss (F Doumen) - 5th in this race last year
My Way De Solzen (A King) - Won this race in 2006

My Way De Solzen is a dual Cheltenham festival winner & must be respected but this race was never its main objective (started the season with Gold cup aspirations).

The other two have been trained specifically for this race & are preferred.

Selections:

One from Kasbah Bliss & Blazing Bailey

16.05 - RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE)

The age, weight and form trends reduce the field to just 6 runners. These are:

Patman Du Charmil (N A Twiston-Davies)Oedipe (N J Henderson)
Bible Lord (Andrew Turnell)
Borora (R Lee)
Mighty Matters (C E Longsdon)
Big Rob (B G Powell)

Two other stats worth mentioning are that N J Henderson has won this race twice in the last 3 years & French bred horses have won 5 of the last 8 runnings.

Of these 6, only the top two are French bred. I cannot fancy Pataman Du Charmil because its last three races have the comment "Led". Front runners such as Pataman Du Charmil will have a bunch of other horses queueing up to take them on when they all get to the Cheltenham hill.

Oedipe has its negatives too. It has only ran over UK hurdles once & It has had a long layoff (483 days). However, It fits the stats so must be rthe selection.

Selection:

Oedipe

16.40 - PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE)

The pertemps final is a tricky race for punters - 7 of the last 10 winners were double figure odds with two 50-1 winners in the last 4 years.

The age, distance & feild size stats reduce the field to 10 runners.

Although the stats show that last time out winners won just over 50% of the time, It would be silly to reccomend a horse that has not shown any decent recent form so I will stick with last time out winners. These are:

Backbord (Mrs L Wadham)
Ballyfitz (N A Twiston-Davies)

Both should go well but Ballyfitz already has winning form over the distance.

Selection:

Ballyfitz (If you have to bet in this tricky race)

17.15 - FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE

This is another tricky race from a trends perspective with no obvious form trend.

This is a race where no horse fits the trends perfectly, Only 4 horses fit the form trend & of these, 3 are aged 7 and one is irish trained:

Beat The Boys (N A Twiston-Davies) - aged 7
Ma Yahab (Miss Venetia Williams) - aged 7
Back To Bid (Noel Meade) - Trained in ireland
Noir Et Vert (Ferdy Murphy) - aged 7

Of the 4, Beat the boys & Noir et Vert have the best form in big field races over 2m 4f+

Selections

Beat The Boys & Noir Et Vert

17.50 - WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER

We wan't an irish trained 5 year old that won last time out and has won in a big field.

There are 5 horses that fit these trends:

Apt Approach ( W P Mullins)
Cockleshell Road (E J OŽGrady)
Corskeagh Royale (Noel Meade)
Cousin Vinny ( W P Mullins)
Drive On Regardles ( W P Mullins)

Apt approach seems to be Mullins 1st string (second favourite) and the booking of Ruby Walsh is a positive (they have combined to win 2 of the last 10 runnings).

For the above reasons, Apt approach will be the trends selection but don't be scared of backing any of the other 4 (the form is very limited & each horse could be anything).

Selection:

Apt Approach

Trends Day 4

12.30 - DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE

(Coming Soon)

13.05 - BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE

The form & age trends reduce the 40 entrants down to 17. Of these, 7 fit the distance and graded requirments.

These are:

Aigle DŽOr ( N J Henderson)
Breedsbreeze (P F Nicholls)
Cooldine (W P Mullins)
Group Captain (A King)
RavenŽs Run (Michael Cunningham)
Trafford Lad (E Sheehy)
Venalmar (M F Morris)

Looking at the betfair odds of Cooldine (250-1) and Ravens run (320-1) we can assume these will be non runners.

Any of the final 5 could win this race & it wouldn't be a suprise to see the top threeplaces being filled by 3 of the above.However, It's worth noting that 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 5f over hurdles. Of the final 5 horses, only Aigle D'or has won over this distance so & has to be the trends pick

Selection:

Aigle D'or

13.40 - CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE)

The coral cup it a tricky race from a trends perspective. The Age, weight, form and experience trends are not as strong as other festival races.

The weight statistic removes 15 of the 28 runners, a further 4 have ran 4 or more times in the season.

Of the remaining 9, 3 are ridden by claiming jockeys (who have not won in the last 10 years) & 3 have the wrong running style (Clarnazar, Baltiman, Chiaro).

Mendo (Noel T Chance)
Naiad Du Misselot (Ferdy Murphy)
Song Of Songs (J R Fanshawe)

The top horse, Mendo was given the comment "not jump well" in its penultimate start so cannot be reccomended with any confidence.

The other two both won on their last outing & both should go well though Naiad du misselot has form over close to to 2m 5f (won over 2m 4f).

Selection:

Naiad Du Misselot