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Grand National 2008 - Tips, trends & analysis

Grand National 2008 - tips & analysis coming Soon.........

Some of the analysis will only be available to subscribers to our FREE newsletter (Last year, we had the 33/1 winner of the national from 2 bets - see below).

Subscribers get free tips all year round:

For example, we recently gave tips on the vast majority of races at the 2008 Cheletnham festival.

If you had bet Ł10 on every horse we tipped, you would have come out with a Ł120 pound profit at S.P (better prices were available earlier in the day).

We expect the Grand National 2008 meeting to be just as profitable.

If you want free access to our grand national 2008 analysis & weekly free tips, you can sign up below:

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Below is a copy of our analysis of the 2007 Grand National.

To view our 2007 PDF eBook showing the main horse racing trends for the national, click the link below.

Grand National 2008

Bet at Betfair

Here is our 2007 analysis.

(Our Grand National 2008 analysis will be along the same lines).

Horses may fail on more than one of the horse racing trends below.

Age

The age trends are useless this year and do not remove any horses

Weight

No horse has carried 11-03 or more to victory in the last 10 years.

This stat rules out the following horses:

Hedgehunter
Eurotrek
LŽAmi
Monkerhostin
Thisthatandtother
Billyvoddan
Numbersixvalverde

Breeding

French breds have a terrible record so we can rule out the following:

LŽAmi
Monkerhostin
Royal Auclair
Kelami
Celtic Son
Clan Royal
Kandjar DŽAllier
Liberthine
Puntal
Sonevafushi
Le Duc
Lou Du Moulin Mas

Official rating

Horses rated 135 and under have a poor record. The following can be ruled out based on this stat:

Jack High
Sonevafushi
Joes Edge
Le Duc
Risk Accessor
Undeniable
Dunbrody Millar
Lou Du Moulin Mas

Horses rated 151+ also have a poor record:

Hedgehunter
Eurotrek
LŽAmi
Monkerhostin
Thisthatandtother

Distance form

The following have not won over 3m or more:

Thisthatandtother
Knowhere
Livingstonebramble
Liberthine
Tikram
Le Duc
Risk Accessor

Recent form

The following horses have won more than once in their last 6 races:

Eurotrek
Simon
Kandjar DŽAllier
Bothar Na
Homer Wells
The Outlier
Mckelvey
Naunton Brook

Hurdles run this season

The horses below have not run over hurdles this season:

Eurotrek
Monkerhostin
Thisthatandtother
Billyvoddan
Idle Talk
Royal Auclair
Knowhere
Celtic Son
Simon
Ballycassidy
Gallant Approach
Kandjar DŽAllier
Slim Pickings
Zabenz
Bewleys Berry
Longshanks
Bothar Na
Graphic Approach
Homer Wells
Philson Run
Puntal
The Outlier
Tikram
Naunton Brook
Sonevafushi
Joes Edge
Risk Accessor
Undeniable
Dunbrody Millar

Summary

This leaves us with a shortlist of 4 (Jack High just misses out by a point on official ratings).

These are:

Cloudy Bays
Point Barrow
Dun Doire
Silver Birch

if we now look at current prices, Cloudy Bays can be ruled out (its 100-1 with bookmakers, 260-1 on betfair).

Horses with an SP of over 40-1 have a poor record in the Grand National.

Of the other 3, Silver birch fits the trends perfectly and the 33-1 currently available looks good each way value.

(he was favourite for this race in 2004 before getting injured).

His trainer has been quite bullish this week "With a clear round I'm sure he'll run a big race, he seems in good nick."

Point barrow just falls outside the perfect official ratings band (135-140) with a rating of 144.

However, after winning last years Irish grand national & this years Pierse Chase he would be a worthy favourite for the race.

On Wednesday, his trainer said "I'd say that if he can avoid trouble, he'll definitely be in the first four".

Dun Doire was 7th to Point Barrow in last seasons Irish National but now has a 15lb pull in the weights in his favour.

The good ground is a worry though - this has caused his price to drift and his trainer has also expressed his concerns.

We hope to see Point Barrow coming home in front with Silver Birch holding on for a place.

Reccomendations

To Win - Point Barrow (1 pt win at 10-1 - Paddy power)

Each Way - Silver Birch (0.5 points win & 0.5 place - betfair)

_________________________________________________________________

Result:

Point Barrow fell at the first fence, Silver Birch went on to win the Grand National. 40-1 was available on the morning of the race.

This shows the value of using horse racing trends in big races. Our newsletter gives out the main horse racing trends for the weeks big race (along with horse racing tips, ideas and new angles to help make your betting pay.

Check out our newsletter page by clicking on on the link on the left or sign up using the opt in form below (and receive your FREE Grand National 2008 tips & analysis).

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