Pace AnalysisPace analysis refers to predicting how a horse race is likely to be run. Through pace analysis, we can see which horses are likely to take the early lead, which are likely to be close up and which horses are likely to be held up at the back of the field. The first part of this page will show you how to quickly work out the likely pace of a race. The second part will show you how use the ratings to find profitable betting angles.
Part 1: Steps to compiling your own pace ratings Step 1 Log on to the racing post website (can also be done using the racing post newspaper) and pick the race you are interested in. The race you pick should involve horses which have established form. For example, It is impossible to predict the pace of a maiden race where half the horses have never ran before. Step 2 Once you have the racing post racecard open in front of you, click on the name of the first horse. This should bring up a seperate window with details of the horse's form. We are interested in the part of the form headed race outcome Step 3 Hover your mouse over the race outcome and a comment will appear. The comment will say something like: "Held up, headway and hung left from over 2f out, weakened final furlong (opened Evs, touched 6/4)". We are interested in the first part of this comment "Held up". Step 4 We want to look at the comments for each horses last 3 races. We will assign a number to each comment as follows: Led, Made all = 4 points Prominent, chased leaders, pressed leaders, in touch, held up in touch etc = 2 points Help up, midfeild, bumped at start, slowly into stride etc = 0 points The above info comes from Jon Gibby's Betting on flat handicaps book by raceform. This was one of the methods that helped John make a 134 pt profit during the 2000 flat season. Its a great book and well worth a read. Step 5 By now you should have your list of horses and you should have given each one a rating. The maximum possible rating is 12 (for a horse that has led in its last 3 races). Once your pace analysis is complete, it's time to look through the ratings to see if we can find a potentially profitable bet.
Part 2: Interpreting the ratings
If you are evaluating an 8 runner race and your pace ratings are as follows: Horse 1 6 pts It would be worth looking at horse number 4 in more detail because if it is not out classed, it may well be able to get an uncontested lead and "Make all". It is not uncommon to see a scenario such as the one above and it should be profitable to follow such horses. We personally like to bet such horses in any race with 9 runners or less.
In a 30 runner handicap, there are likely to be between 2 & 4 horses contesting the lead plus plenty of horses in a prominent position. Such races are usually run at a very fast pace and the front runners tend to get swamped by the horses coming from behind. In such races, it pays to be against the front runners & prominient horses and with the horses that are usually held up (ie 0 - 2 points). Other potentially profitable bets include front runners with good draws (ie drawn 1 at Chester in sprint races).
Important points to note when using pace analysis The pace analysis figures are only a guide to the likely pace & the factors below should also be taken into account Horses wearing blinkers for the first time tend to front run often no matter how they ran in the past. Horses may change their running style when changing trip. (ie horses stepping up in trip may be held up to ensure they stay the trip). Horses that normally front run may not be able to get to the front due to a poor draw.
Further reading on pace analysis Betting for a living by Nick Mordin. Betting on flat handicaps by Jon Gibby. If you enjoy our site, why not sign up for our Newsletter below. Its packed with tips, analysis, horses to follow and ten year trends and is sent out around twice a month
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