Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

Always a great race to start the festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle has involved plenty of horses that went on to further Cheltenham festival success in later seasons.

Best Mate, Kicking King, War of attrition and Brave Inca are just a few of the horses that have gone on to future festival success.

As you can see from the first three horses mentioned above, the Supreme Novices Hurdle is clearly a race to keep a close eye on when looking for future Gold cup winners.

Now onto the trends.

The trends below are very powerful and will help you cut down the field to a shortlist of the most likely winners.

Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

Form

This is a very powerful trend and will help to significantly reduce the field size.

9 of the last 10 winners won their last race. 8 of the last ten winners won their last two races.

If a horse cannot win an ordinary race then it has virtually no chance when upped to the championship class of the festival.

Age

The majority of the winners (8 - 10) were either 5 or 6 years old.

At first glance this trend seems significant but it is actually a fair reflection of their chances because 5 & 6 year olds made up 80% of the runners for this race.

Weight

This is not important because the vast majority of the runners will be carrying the same weight.

Starting Price

Horses under 5-1 boast a 36% strike rate and a £1.75 profit in the last ten years.

Such horses account for 4 of the last 10 winners.

Horses between 5-1 & 7-1 account for 2 of the winners but made a loss of £4.

The other 4 winners range 10's & 25's with the 20-1 - 25-1 price bracket showing a £6 profit (2 winners from 39 runners).

There have been 96 Horses starting at 28-1 or over and none won.

Only 3 of these managed to make it into the first 3 places.

Previous experience

9 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles between 2 & 4 times. All 9 of these had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.

4 of these winners had won all their hurdle starts.

Distance of previous race

9 of the last 10 Supreme Novices Hurdle winners had run over distances between 2m & 2m2f on their previous race.

Summary

In summary, we are looking for a horse that has won its last two races, has between 2 & 4 hurdle runs and has won at least 50% of these runs.

Horses should ideally have run over a distance of 2m - 2m2f on their previous race.

Runners with prices of 28-1 & over tend to do poorly.

Good luck & happy punting.

Gareth Thompson
Horse-racing-systems-uk.com